Matthew Hunt
Professor Shirk
International Relations
September 20, 2015

North Korea’s Dangerous Bluffing Game

Given the latest headlines of China warning North Korea not to launch satellites, the North Korean Regime seems to be playing a risky poker game even with its one and only foreign partner. In recent years, the long time ally has become weary of North Korea’s nuclear developments. (Neuman) Just last year, when North Korea threatened the United States and its allies, Chinese President Xi Jinping affirmed that “no one should be allowed to throw a region, and even the whole world, into chaos for selfish gain” (Neuman). Both of these insights remind me of Realist IR theory, in that true allies do not exist. While I typically disagree with Realism’s rejection of cooperative action and third party actors, I believe that this lens can best describe the international politics of North Korea.

From a glance, the territorial shortcomings of North Korea are apparent (the state is slightly bigger than Virginia), and would presume a nation unfit to be a threat to the world’s great powers. However, in the modern world of power politics, North Korea is significant, because it has demonstrated nuclear capabilities through tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013. In combination with North Korea’s estimated 11 million military ready men and women, the nation’s military capabilities are not to be ignored. (CIA) More disturbingly, North Korea’s 2014 threats against the United States indicate what Realist John J. Mearsheimer coins as a “scared state”, or one that “will be disposed to pursue risky policies to enhance its security” (Mearsheimer). As aforementioned, North Korea has the potential power of population, including the actual power of an army, air force and navy. Nonetheless, nuclear weaponry has been the focal point of the relative gains struggle ever since its development at the end of the world war (“Atomic Bomb” HISTORY). The nuclear age indicates that North Korea’s development of long range nuclear missiles could spell a turning point in power politics.

North Korea has been catering to the world’s interest in its nuclear capabilities, thus indirectly stimulating a Realist response by using the media. This previous Tuesday, North Korea updated its Sohae Satellite Launching Station, using underground rail-system and a building that could suspiciously house long range ballistic missiles. A U.S. official has reported that “Stealth has been central to each facet of the new design”. (Hennigan) On the same day, North Korea threatened the United States, threatening to launch a nuclear attack at “any time” (Hennigan). Although these threats have been interpreted to be groundless by U.S. analyst standards, the United States cannot afford to exercise anything but caution. Under Realist theory, offensive capabilities matter, not necessarily intentions (Mearsheimer). Can North Korea be strategically bolstering the international community’s view of its relative military power? North Korea seems to draw much of its power from news of its offensive capabilities, or at the least its ability to make these capabilities economically feasible.

                  Nations should focus on North Korea’s seemingly boisterous regard to nuclear development because it, along with all states, are anarchy, in which no sole governing moral entity can enforce power over all other nations. Because of this steady state of anarchy, intentions between states cannot be realized. International politics is therefore defined as a struggle for state preservation. (Mearsheimer) North Korea can be best seen as furthering Realist discussion among the international community, since it remains one of the most concealed countries in the world. Recent pressure from North Korean ally China to reduce nuclear development has proven that ultimately the state’s interest is final. This would explain why, uncharacteristically, China has responded to North Korea’s military buildup in much the same way as the United States did this previous Tuesday.

                  Ultimately, North Korea is aware of its ability to draw global attention, and uses this at the cost of other states adopting Realist policy approaches. The recent developments of North Korea’s threats against the United States, although not atypical prompted the U.S. to remain vigilant of the peninsular state’s military buildup. Critical attention is drawn to North Korea’s advancements in nuclear missile technology. From North Korea’s perspective, the development of these potential doomsday weapons can create fear, which works as a good defense in the short term, but spells diplomatic disaster in years to come.

                                                                       

Works Cited

“Atomic Bomb” HISTORY. N.p., 10 Mar. 2014. Web. 20 Sept. 2015.

Hennigan, W. J., and Brian Bennett. "U.S. Keeping a Close Eye on North Korean Satellite Launch Site." Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, 19 Sept. 2015. Web. 20 Sept. 2015.

Mearsheimer, John J. "Anarchy and the Struggle for Power." The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton, 2001. N. pag. Print.

Neuman, Scott. "China Calls On North Korea To Halt Planned Space Launch, Nuclear Test." NPR. NPR, 19 Sept. 2015. Web. 20 Sept. 2015.

"North Korea Sends Special Envoy To China Amid Tensions." Central Intelligence Agency. Central Intelligence Agency, 15 Sept. 2015. Web. 20 Sept. 2015.